Sorgen über steigende Arbeitslosigkeit,GDP ,ua..

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04.05.01 13:26

59900 Postings, 7388 Tage KickySorgen über steigende Arbeitslosigkeit,GDP ,ua..

gekürzte Zusammenfassung von Bloomberg und marketwatch


Analysts said job cuts that were announced months ago by companies such as
Sara Lee Corp. and Walt Disney Co. are starting to go into effect as
economic growth stays sluggish. The economy probably added just 20,000 jobs in April after losing 86,000 in March, according to the survey.
The Labor Department is scheduled to release the report at 8:30 a.m. Washington time. The government's payroll figures are derived from a survey of companies, while the unemployment data are based on a survey of households.
A 4.4 percent unemployment rate would be the highest since April 1999, when it was also 4.4 percent, according to government statistics. The last time the unemployment rate rose for two straight months was May-June 1992
Consumer Spending

Analysts are watching to see whether rising unemployment causes consumers to rein in spending, which accounts for two- thirds of the economy. If that happens, analysts say, growth would falter
The real risk here is that the job losses and incomes lost, particularly in manufacturing, undermine confidence and consumers retrench one more time

We're on the road to recovery but it's a long, slow pull. It's a pattern we'll probably see more of in the weeks ahead -- a few good days followed by ugly ones. Despite Thursday's pullback, we're creating a trading range toward the upside. It's no tremendous market we're in, but we have had a terrific rally over the past five weeks," observed John Forelli, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Independence Investment.

"The markets are somewhat overbought on a short-term basis, which is the natural result after a move to the upside. The critical factors now are that the markets do not become overheated in price action, which is a growing risk, or that the internal readings of broader market strength do not support further gains. So far, all is in order [and] the uptrend has been moving higher in a steady and healthy fashion," commented Robert Dickey, technical strategist at Dain Rauscher.

"Technically, you need a pullback in the market to do some base building -- it's healthy. People have been afraid the train would leave the station without them in recent weeks.
The market may also haven gotten too optimistic on the fundamental front with its projections of a turnaround in the economy in the second half of the year
," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan Beck & Co.

The market had to process some weak economic news Thursday morning that countered the more optimistic releases of late.

For one, the NAPM services index for April came in at 47.1 percent vs. the expected 50.6 percent and March's 50.3 percent"The non-manufacturing NAPM fell below the 50-mark for the first time in its brief history in April. The drop suggests that the rot in the manufacturing sector has infected the rest of the economy. Coupled with continued reductions in the manufacturing index, this report supports our expectation that GDP will contract in the current quarter..April layoffs totaled a record 165,564 compared to March's 162,867. So far in 2001, 572,370 job cuts have been announced by U.S. companies -- more than in the first 11 months of 2000 combined.All eyes are now on Friday's employment report
A survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.com expects non-farm payrolls to have risen by 21,000 vs. March's 86,000 decline. The jobless rate is seen edging up to 4.4 percent while average hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.3 percen
 

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