GEDANKEN++ZU HRCT++ WKN 900009 ++ENGLISH
hjw2 : GEDANKEN++ZU HRCT++ WKN 900009 ++ENGLISH
Thoughts on the recent bloodbath:
1) HRCT is down mainly, though not entirely, because of the NASDAQ crash.
2) The crash (a 50% decline seems like one to me) has been much more severe for the small-cap tech sector and for the development-stage companies with essentially startup businesses. And that's particularly true of the smaller incubator companies. Check out HHGP, not entirely comparable, but you get the idea.
3) HRCT contributed with a few of its own missteps. It said, as I recall that HRCT would be profitable last year; it wasn't. It suggested heavily that SinoBull could be launched by March/April timeframe with U.S. partner; that hasn't happened. And there was some expectation expressed that the Nasdaq review might take 8 weeks, not much longer.
Where from here?
1) The recovery will take longer than we expect, be filled with potholes, but happen as HRCT executes its plan.
2) The single biggest accomplishment has been HRCT getting a real auditor and putting together honestly audited and rigorously checked books. The whole process will tend to make HRCT more conservative in its financial reporting and forecasts -- and more credible in the long run.
3) The single short-term driver will be the selection of a U.S. partner for SinoBull, who will likely take a small equity stake and be involved in the management/direction of the company. If it is credible -- i.e., Merrill, DLJ, or even E*Trade -- the stock should get quite a lift. If not, this will be a long year. I think it will be credible.
4) The SinoBull offering could well be postponed from summer, frankly not a terrible thing, as I'm sure it is very hectic putting this together. If it is done by year end, that would be a huge accomplishment.
5) Overall, if anyone was holding HRCT for a short term bump, forgot it. Time to keep your eyes off the daily screens and check in every few weeks or months, and if things track loosely according to plan, this'll be a good long term holding.