Amis sind realisticher als unser Weltuntergang

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eröffnet am: 02.02.08 20:05 von: Libuda Anzahl Beiträge: 1
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02.02.08 20:05

53142 Postings, 5783 Tage LibudaAmis sind realisticher als unser Weltuntergang

uns seine Lemming. Ein Beispiel aus den USA:

Nice call on the Dow drop, but try to get out of the "doom and gloom" mode. The world is not ending, and despite the tabloid type headlines the .99 cent store will not be selling million dollar houses anytime soon.

"About 60 percent of S&P 500 companies have beat Wall Street expectations, and 14 percent have met them, according to Thomson Financial. However, 27 percent missed targets -- up significantly from the typical 20 percent seen in previous years."

All those that missed are in the financial sector, and those will recover rapidly as soon as housing prices stabilize...and they will.

Clearly there was way to much money thrown into housing in the US the last few years, but that is correcting rapidly. The bottom will be in soon, as builders have pretty much shut off the supply with new permits at record lows. Once the price reaches a point where investors can buy again and then rent the units out for a profit prices will stabilize (if I could buy 100 houses for a positive cash flow on each one I'd do it...that just hasen't been possible for nearly a decade now).

The banks are pricing another 20% drop in prices in their write-offs over the next two years. If that doesn't happen those write-offs will come right back onto the balance sheet.

Home builders are up over 30% for just the month of Jan, and that's the first sign life may be coming back to housing industry in about six months (how far the markets look forward).

The main reason why I'm not throwing in the towel is the Fed has plenty of room to cut rates. The prime rate was 8.25% for the longest time, and the Fed funds rate was well over 5% when inflation has been running around 2%...and will be much less than that this year. If the rates were in the 1% range when this whole mess started I'd be with you, running for the hills and buying gold.

I see oil in the 50 dollar range later this year, I see inflation low, I see the economy coming back the second half of this year. In short, I bought 5000 shares of ICGE yesterday (I think I payed around 9.32 if tech is still around keeping track).

PS...anyone know how to get that stupid looking chick out of my profile picture. My daughter stuck it there, and thinks  

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